The Wave
Aging Trends in Chautauqua County
We’re getting older,
Chautauqua County. (Please scroll down)
“Of course we’re getting older. Everyone gets older every day.”
True, but we’re also getting older as a county. And this trend has implications for the health of all of our residents, from the oldest to the newly born.
This visualization explores the changing age demographics of Chautauqua County.
Which age group within Chautauqua County do you think has changed in size the most over the past 10 years?
The population of children under 5 has decreased by over 9%.
The number of children 5-9 years old has decreased by approximately 2.5%.
Children ages 10-19 have decreased in number by over 16%.
The population of adults ages 20 to 40 has declined 8.7% …
… and adults ages 40-64 have decreased in number by over 10.5%.
All of these age groups have decreased in number in our county over the past 10 years, as has our county’s total population.
Nevertheless, the largest percent change - in either direction - has been an increase in residents ages 65 to 74. Residents in that age range have increased by over 33% in the past 10 years.
In fact, the entire U.S. has been undergoing a major demographic shift, largely driven by the aging of the baby boomer generation - individuals born between 1946 and 1964. The percentage of America’s total population 65 years and older is projected to rise to 23% by 2050.
But note: that percentage in our county in 2024 was already 22.5%.
We can see the “wave” of Chautauqua County’s aging population by viewing a series of graphs of our county’s age distribution over the past several years.
Scroll through these yearly graphs and watch the yellow “wave” move slowly but surely from left (younger) to right (older).
Data is from the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
In 2023, the wave was cresting in the 60-64 years old age range.
Soon it will move into the retirement years.
But it’s not only that the 65+ population in our county is swelling.
At the same time, the number of working-age adults is decreasing.
Here’s one way to look at this:
In 2010, there were approximately 9.5 working-age adults (ages 20-64) in Chautauqua County for every 2 adults who were 70 years or older.
Ten years later, in 2020, there were approximately 8 working-age adults for every 2 adults 70 years or older.
After another 10 years, in 2030, it is projected that number will have dropped to 6 working age adults for every 2 residents 70 years or older.
The working age population is projected to decrease by 11% from 2020 to 2030, even as the number of residents needing more services is increasing.
So, what are the implications of these changes for Chautauqua County?
There are many, among them an increasing need especially for chronic disease management and for long-term care.
We can start with a look at long-term care.
While there is no required - or even officially recommended - number of skilled nursing facility beds for a local population, we can compare national and county numbers:
One recent study put the average number of nursing home beds in the US at 445 per 10000 adults aged 65 years or older. (“Trends in Supply of Nursing Home Beds, 2011-2019” (Miller, Chatterjee, & Werner, 2023)).
(An earlier paper reported the US had 410 beds/10,000 population 65 and older.) (“What is the ‘Right’ Number of Nursing Home Beds for Population Needs? An Indicator Development Project” (Wilson, Brow, & Playfair, 2017)).
In the past 3 years, with the closures of 2 facilities (Lutheran Social Services and Absolut Care), Chautauqua County has experienced the loss of over 250 nursing home beds.
According to data from the NYS Department of Health and the US Census, Chautauqua County currently has approximately 235 certified nursing home beds/10,000 residents age 65+.
(Note: not all certified beds are necessarily immediately available for a resident.)
- far fewer nursing home beds per senior population than the national average
- increasing numbers of elderly residents
- a shrinking population of working-age adults
- current staffing shortages
- low reimbursement rates and threats of further cuts.
Collaboration between local physicians, hospitals, and nursing homes is occurring.
But county-level solutions alone cannot address the underlying problem of inadequate reimbursement to nursing homes.
“In New York, Medicaid reimbursement is so low that it only funds about 73% of the cost of a Medicaid resident in a nursing home, according to Stephen Hanse, president and CEO of the NYS Health Facilities Association and NYS Center for Assisted Living. Nursing homes in the state are paid based on 2007 costs, he said.” (Stulick, Amy. “Fears of “Unmanageable” Closure Threats Heightened by Staffing Mandate, Subpar Medicaid, and Continuing Pipeline Issues.” Skilled Nursing News, 18 Mar. 2025, skillednursingnews.com/2025/03/fears-of-unmanageable-closure-threats-heightened-by-staffing-mandate-subpar-medicaid-and-continuing-pipeline-issues/. Accessed 2 Jan. 2026.).
Another implication of our county’s aging population is the anticipated need for even more treatment and management of chronic diseases.
Because chronic diseases become more prevalent and require more care as people grow older, the age distribution of a county’s population is a significant public health measure.
To provide a specific example, we can return to graphs depicting the age distribution of Chautauqua County residents over time.
In the year 2000, the numbers of county residents in each age category looked like this.
Notice again the peak of the “baby boomers.” Watch how the peak moves as that group gets older.
(BTW, you’ll also notice the peak of teenagers go down over time.)
Here’s the age distribution in 2010. The peak moved to the right and that group got older.
And this is the distribution in 2020.
Now, with this aging trend in mind, let’s look at the ages at which one chronic illness - cancer - is mostly likely to be diagnosed.
The largest number of county residents are just now reaching the age when most new cancer diagnoses occur.
The same principle occurs with other chronic illnesses.
The unsurprising point is this: an aging population requires more medical care, both treatment and ongoing management of chronic illnesses….
… and, when that treatment and management require extended care, an aging population also needs nursing home- and home-based services.
